How soon will the networks and other media call the Presidential election? If certain states are considered to be key to either of the two candidate’s chance of victory for the day, it is conceivable that we may know the result as early as 7:30pm EST.
Why is this so?
Using the Greenpapers.com site and its collection of polling time closures as a guide, we find that many of the states that are now considered to be battleground states will be closing early. This include the following:
Closing at 7:00pm EST:
- Indiana (CST part of the state closes at this time while the EST time closes at 6pm)
- Kentucky (CST part of the state closes at this time while the EST time closes at 6pm)
- Florida
- Georgia
- South Carolina
- Vermont
- Virginia
Closing at 7:30pm
- Ohio
- West Virginia
Now poll closures do not mean that the results will be known right away. Also, the nominal poll closing time in some areas may be extended because of line-ups at polling states. Finally, networks are loathe to call any states prematurely until a certain percentage of votes come in from monitored districts considered to be bellwether districts for the state. When those results confirm whatever exit polls they have on hand, then they will call the state for the candidate.
Having said that, four of those states (Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, Florida) were red Republican states in the past two elections and if we know that at least one of them have flipped to Barack Obama, then it is pretty good chance that the night will be his.
Indeed, the earlier that one of those states is called with something like a significant margin of polls, the better Obama’s chances. This is because certain states are considered to be in the bag for either candidate. States like New York or Wyoming will be called for the candidates as soon as the polls close in those states.
Watch for states like Georgia which are expected to go for McCain. If the margin becomes very close and a winner is not declared early on, that will mean that Obama’s support will be considered to be very broad.
In any case, by the time the Pacific states close their polls at 11:00pm, we should have a good time how the voting goes for the election.
Tomorrow night is the vice-presidential debates between Joe Biden (D) and Sarah Palin (R). Hard to say what will happen from the debate or the aftermath thereof. So much pre-debate spin and then there is the debate format itself which will not be anywhere near as freewheeling as the the first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama. My guess, considering how every occurence by them will be endlessly parsed by commentators, very little will be said that might cause the campaigns grief. In other words, it will be endlessly boring. I might just watch the college football game and then check back afterwards on the post debate shows.
After being nearly totally absent when the financial crisis first struck last week, President Bush is seemingly popping up every day with a short statement or speech. In truth, he has been virtually non-entity politically since the beginning of the year. Then again, he has not really shown anything leadership on any matters of consequence this year. He is the lamest of lame duck presidents. One thing, though, which struck as interesting is his appearance as of late. He looks very pale with a a very grey head of hair as one would get when under a very stressful life. When his father, the 41st president left office in 1993, he was 68 years old but the current president is just 62 now and looks much older than his father ever did.
Current election polls are showing a steady lead for Obama right now. If the election was to be held now, he would get an electoral college landslide victory. But there still is 5 weeks to go and I do not think the lead will be as large then as it is now. However, the economic situation will not improve in the interim and anything else, this will dictate the election results.
One consequence of the nearing election date is that there is a massive uptick of advertising on television. The presidential candidates have advertising continually for months but now the down ballot races for governor and senator are intensifying too. This week, we are starting to see many of the congressional candidates advertising and for the state house races too. This election is going to be a doozy.
It is now part of the accepted thinking that the selection of Sarah Palin has been a momentous game changer for this election. Where the crowds were small and lackluster for McCain, now they are out in number and enthusiasm.
Before despairing, we should also recognize that Obama has had his own fair share of game changing moments. The first one was the endorsement of Ted Kennedy back in January. Kennedy’s endorsement gave Obama’s the legitimacy of the establishment Democratic Party and made old time liberals more comfortable with Kennedy.
The next big game changer moment was the wins especially in the caucus states on Super Tuesday in early February. By staying close to Hilary Clinton in delegate but with a financial reserves she could not match, he was able to win the next set of primaries and caucuses without too much opposition providing momentum for the rest of the campaign.
A third game changing moment was the endorsement of John Edwards after the West Virgina primary. By coming out with that endorsement, whatever media coverage that Clinton hope to sustain after her victory was gone as the media talked nothing but the endorsement and what it meant for the Obama campaign.
So here we are just 8 weeks out from election day. The media is in a frenzy about the McCain-Palin ticket (or is it the Palin-McCain ticket?). All they talked about is that and Obama/Biden are lucky to get any attention at all. Whatever critical insight the media had in early part of last week, is pretty much gone now in terms of a more fawning approach akin to Extra or Entertainment Tonight.
The conversation needs to change and must be soon or there will not be enough time to move the media narrative of the campaign.
Question is though, what game changing opportunities exist for Obama? It has to be significant to get everyone’s attention so it has to meaningful. Getting the endorsement of a minor non-Democratic person will not do.
So what is the best game changing opportunity exists that Obama has control over?
There are four possible game changing events:
- Major endorsement by a non-Democratic figure like Colin Powell or Chuck Hagel. An endorsement like this especially from a Republican would definitely make people take notice but are there any one of any particular statuture who could make a dramatic difference. I do not think so. Powell or Hagel will definitely make the pundits talk about it for a day or two but essentially all it does is change the conversation for a day or two without any lasting effect. There is also the fact that such endorsements bring little in terms of any political base. Perhaps someone like Michael Huckabee would have a greater impact but such people are firmly in McCain’s camp now.
- Hillary Clinton replaces Joe Biden as Vice President nominee. Such an event would definitely will cause a stir for a long while but would it be a positive one? The selection of Palin seems to have galvanise many of Clinton’s supporters to go to Obama now as it is apparent that the choosing of Palin to bring Clinton supporters strictly on the basis of gender is failing. So it unlikely that choosing Clinton now will bring any more support to Obama. What a choice like that does is make the Obama camp look defensive and weak, that it needed Clinton to get them the presidency. It would reflect badly on the integrity of Obama in that he would thrown over his personal choice as VP for expedient’s sake. As it is though, there are no other VP picks now that would have an impact like Clinton.
- Obama announces a major policy initiative like Universal Healthcare. This election is about change and hope for the future. Healthcare is increasingly important in the lives of everyone these days and while healthcare is an important plank of the Obama campaign, it really never has gain a point of prominence. Many elections have been decided in the past based on simple slogans that distill the complexities of policy initiatives. A forty page document about healthcare on a website will not capture the hearts and minds of ordinary voters. But a slogan such as Healthcare for Everyone or All troops out of Iraq by 2010 reinforced constantly on the stump and in advertising may sway public opinion more than any policy document.
- Obama crushes McCain in the debates. From what I have heard fom media reports and on the interview Obama had with Keith Olbermann, it seems that the Obama camp is putting more emphasis on the upcoming debates to help build a lead and sustain a lead straight to the election day. It is a sound policy on the face of it. Three debates will have more viewers and decide more minds than any news event or advertising campaign. The problem, though, is that Obama has repeatedly shown himself in group debates and one on one debates with Hillary Clinton during the primary campaign as a fair debater at best. A haltingly delivery, the thinking before saying approach while getting the approval of pundits and commentators, comes across to the television audience as someone not sure of himself and perhaps indecisive. Against a man who made strength of character as the centerpiece of his personal history, it may not be the best approach regardless of how many errors, lies or gaffes McCain will commit in the course of the debate. Debate requires an ability to repartee quickly and to frame the answer to highlight your best qualities or your opponents worse ones. The second debate is in the town hall format, a supposed strength of McCain’s. If somehow, Obama does average in the debates then it makes his job harder to open a lead on McCain.