Much has been made of Canada’s bold statement to Own the Podium, to be the top team in the medal standings. But as we know, it was known by the mid point of the Games that the goal was going to be unattainable. Many medal favorites failed to live up to their medal expectations and ended up in the fourth or fifth positions, on the outside looking in at the podium.
For athletes not winning a medal in their events is something to be expected at all Olympic Games and it should have been anticipated by most people who follow the Olympics. What has not happened much for Canada at these games is the surprise medalists which Canada had been leaning on for the past few Olympics to give them that extra boost in the medal standings when Canadians start worrying about how the team is performing.
Of course, the United States team has had an outstanding Olympics winning medals across several disciplines which accounted for their insurmountable lead in the games.
But there are standards for measuring success rather than overall medal count. Some countries go by the number of medals they win, especially gold, in a discipline which they traditionally dominate such as South Korea in short track speedskating or Norway in cross-country skiing.
The other standard is total number of gold medals won overall.
There has been many measurements of how many silvers equate to a gold and then how many bronzes equate to a silver or a gold. Some countries prefer to have more medallists even if they are silver or bronze. Others prefer to just have the best athletes at an event; in this case second place does not do.
Associated Press gives weight on the relative importance of one medal compared to another or rather placement of athletes in terms of points. AP gives 10 points to a gold, 5 to silver, 3 to bronze, 2 to fourth place and 1 point to fifth place. So in this case, 2 silvers do equal a gold and 3 bronzes almost equal a gold.
Nonetheless, a country can claim by the number of gold medals it wins that it has more elite athletes than any other.
So it is that Canada now will set its goal from these games as the country with the most gold medals. It is a bit of a change from what the country started off as its ultimate goal of most medals but it is not a radical shift. To get the most medals at a Games, the nation should also be leading or close to leading in total gold medals too.
Coming into Saturday’s events, Canada does lead in total gold medals with 10 but it is a tentative lead. Norway, Germany and the United States are just one gold medal behind and all three countries have events which they can place a gold medalist.
Canada does have opportunities to win additional gold medals in men’s hockey, men’s speed skating team pursuit and men’s curling. In two of those events, Canada faces the United States so Canada has some control of how the gold medals will be won between the two nations.
Still, with three guaranteed medals to come, total medal count for Canada will be at least 24 medals which ties the Torino games for most medals won in a Winter Games. But more importantly, 10 gold medal ties the most gold medals won by Canada in any games, which was in the 1984 Los Angeles games, boycotted by the Eastern Communist bloc nations.
Events:
- Alpine – Men’s Slalom
- Boblsled – Men’s 4-man sled
- Crosscountry – Men’s 50km (Sunday) Women’s 30km
- Curling – Men’s Final
- Hockey- Men’s Final (Sunday)
- Snowboarding – Men’s Parallel Slalom
- Speedskating – Men’s Team Pursuit, Women’s Team Pursuit
Canadian Medal Hopes
The final weekend of the Winter Games are upon us and the last big events of the games will be on this weekend.
Like the Summer Games with the men’s marathon on the final day, there is an endurance race, the Men’s 50km cross country race. There is also the marquee team event, Men’s hockey final featuring for what NBC believes is the dream match up of Canada versus United States. That game will be on nearly ever television set in Canada.
But there are events going on featuring Canadians in good medal positions.
The Men’s speedskating team will go for gold in the team pursuit race. In their heats, they have been putting up extraordinary times and they will go up against the United States team who beat the favorited Netherlands team. If the Canadian men win gold, that would help make up for a a shocking loss by the women’s team in their qualifying heat.
The Canada-1 sled driven by Lyndon Rush sits in second place going into the final run, fighting with Germany-1 sled for appears to be the silver medal. Much like the Canada-1 sled in the women’s two-man sled, the USA-1 sled seems to have found a groove that will allow them to keep and build upon their wide lead against all other sleds.
Kevin Martin is going for gold in the curling final. He has been dominant throughout the tournament and he should preserve.
In snowboarding, Jasey Jay Anderson will try to win Olympic medal. He has been a dominant force in snowboarding for years but flamed out entirely in the Torino games. He enters the event as potential medalist which if previous snowboarding events are any indication, the favorites have typically done well in the events.
A most auspicious day for Canada and it celebrates the winning of four medals today. After a few days where self-doubt and national soul searching occurred after the poor medal showing on the second weekend of the games topped by a loss to the United States in hockey, there is sense now that the worse is over and that the nation will start showing some success at the Games.
First off was the women’s 5000m speedskating race. Clara Hughes, one of Canada’s most decorated athletes of all time, ended her Olympian career with a bronze medal. This is the third medal she has won in this event having won bronze in 2002 and gold in 2006.
Next up is the silver medal won by women’s short track speedskating team. This is an event that Canada has won a medal in since it was added to the Games schedule. As always with short track, this event was marred by controversy where a disqualification on the South Korean team cause them to lose the gold medal and helped move Canada up from the bronze position to silver behind the Chinese team.
The big event was in women’s 2-man bobsled where Canada came 1-2 with sleds driven by Kaillie Humphries and Helen Upperton respectively. Canada entered the games as favored for a medal and from the very first run, Humphries lead the competition. Upperton had a harder course to a medal starting fifth on the first run but slowly moving their way up the standings helped in part by a poor fourth run by the American sled and a crash by the leading German sled.
Finally, the demons that seemingly beset the men’s hockey team throughout the tournament appear to be behind them as they routed the Russian team 7-3. This sets up the team well with the momentum it needs going into the semifinal game on Friday.
Another potential controversy has arisen in the women’s giant slalom race as run 2 was postponed to Thursday. Some racers want a do-over of the first race as required by the sport’s rules. The Austrian team, well positioned for medals want to keep intact the first run results. For now, there is only one race scheduled.
The other big event of the day was the men’s 4×10km cross country relay. Canada had a chance in this event based on previous race results but it was not to be. What we did get was an inspired comeback by the Norwegian team from 24 seconds down in the final lap to win silver behind Sweden.
Events
- Alpine – Womens Giant Slalom
- Boblsed – Women’s Two man Sled
- Cross Country – Men’s 4×10km Relay
- Freestyle – Women’s Aerials
- Short Track – Men’s 500m, Women’s Relay, Women’s 1000m
- Speedskating – Women’s 5000m
After an emotional day where Joanie Rochette managed to put the nation on pause for a moment as she danced the short program for the women’s figure skating. the Olympics move on to Day 13 of the program.
Canadian Medal Hopes
Quite a few events on the schedule today. Medal hopes abound for Canada if the team lives up to expectations.
First off is the Women’s 5000m event in speedskating. Clara Hughes won this event four years ago in Torino but it is unlikely that she will win a medal this year let alone the gold. The same applies for Cindy Klassen. Once again, the burden lies on Kristin Groves to succeed once more and for the past few seasons she has been competitive at this event. Silver or bronze is within her grasp.
Short Track speedskating has just one medal event along with event heats. Canada has virtually won a medal in every Olympics for the women’s relay. The Chinese and Korean squads will be fighting for gold but once again, in short track, you never know what happens.
Women’s bobsled looks good for a medal so far with the Canada 1 sled atop the run standings and Canada 2 sled in a pack of sleds fighting for the bronze medal position.
The dark horse medal hope of the day is the men’s relay event in cross country skiing. Team members have come agonizing close to a medal in several events this Olympics. The tradition powers in the event like Norway, Russia, and Italy will be there but there is always hope that if the Canadian team can take advantage of a slipup by the other teams, it may be the break they need.
But all of those medal hopes are secondary to the big event on the calendar tonight as Canada faces Russia in hockey quarterfinal. Both teams were touted for the gold medal final but now one of them will come up far short.
With a hopeful sign as the day end, this most black of weekends for Canadian medal hopes come to an end.
So much promise of success turned out to be so much shattered dreams. Near certain medal hopes turned out to be illustionary. Canada managed only one silver medal for all its efforts but it could have done much more.
Perhaps the skeleton races on Friday night was a dire foreshadowing of what was at hand when Canada lost two strong medal hopes in the women’s and men’s races. Still those sort of events happen. No one is guaranteed a medal at the Olympics but when so many medal hopefuls go down in quick succession, you wonder if Canada is jinxed in some what.
Of course, Canada is not alone feeling this way. The Russians are incensed at the poor performance of their team and the Norwegians are at a lost why so many of their star biathlon and cross country skiers are not living up to their medal expectations. But who cares? I am Canadian and how Canada does is what matters to me.
Some losses are more relevant than others. The speedskating teams are underperforming compared to past Olympics. In short-track, Canadian are making the finals but can not get the past other skaters especially the dominating Koreans.
In long track skating, Denny Morrison is becoming the Jeremy Wotherspoon of this Olympics. While they have produced 3 medals so far, the women’s team is just barely hanging in there. One theory why the team is not getting the results expected is that the team trained for the wrong venue. Training in Calgary at altitude is much different than performing at sea level which Richmond is located. The Dutch skaters which are doing much better than expected live in a country which is virtually at sea level everywhere. In some way, the Dutch are making amends for 2006 where they performed relatively poorly against their country’s expectations because of the altitude of Torino.
A strong start in the men’s two man boblsled ended up crashing on the second run.
Chris Del Bosco was a strong medal favorite for the men’s skicross event. Leading up to the finish, he was solidly in third place but his desire to push for gold cost him a medal. Perhaps, it is better to strive for the top and fail rather than settle for a lesser prize but it would to have a medal in any column for Canada on this day.
Of course, the kicker was the hockey team’s lost to the United States 5-3. Now, there is a silver lining to this particular scenario. One is that it essential for the team to play another game together. Frankly, this is a team in need of extra work for it to start congealing as the team that everyone expects it to be which it really hasn’t yet in the games against Switzerland and the United States. First up will be Germany.
But in the gloom, a bit of light as the Ice Dancing team of Virtue and Moir put in a top performance that puts them in medal contention for the free skate for Monday night.
As well, there were some performances that were noteworthy for the team’s effort. The men’s cross country team did quite well placing 3 men in the top 10 for the 30km event. This could mean great placing in the team relay and sprint events to come.
Canadian Notable Placements:
Women’s Speedskating 1500m: Kristin Groves Silver
Men’s Two Man Boblsled: Canada 2 (Leuders/Lumsden) 5th
Day 8 of the Olympics brought triumph and disappointment for Canada all in the sport of skeleton. Jon Mongomery won gold in the Men’s skeleton event with a determined effort to first narrow the gap between him and Martin Dukurs of Latvia and to surpass him by 0.07 seconds. This make Canada a repeat winner in this event. Still, this triumph was tempered by the failure of Melissa Hollingsworth to hold onto her second place after the third run and Mike Douglas disqualification for not removing his sleds covers. A sport that gave Canada 3 medals in Torino only gave up one. Needless to say, this does put Canada’s goal of topping the medal count in jeopardy.
Given the relatively light schedule of the day, the other significant placing for Canada was in the Men’s Alpine Super G event where Erik Guay came fifth just a few thousandths out of a medal.
Canadian Notable Placements:
Men’s Alpine Super G: Erik Guay 5th
Men’s Skeleton: Jon Montgomery Gold
Women’s Skeleton: Melissa Hollingsworth 5th
So after 5 full days of competition, the current top five countries in the medal standings are as follows:
So how does this compare to the predictions by the Associated Press and Sports Illustrated?
For Associated Press, these were the medal counts it expected by this point in the competition:
Germany: 3 Gold, 6 Silver, 0 Bronze – 9 Total
United States: 3 Gold, 3 Silver, 3 Bronze – 9 Total
Canada: 4 Gold, 2 Silver, 1 Bronze – 7 Total
France: 2 Gold, 0 Silver, 2 Bronze – 4 Total
Korea: 2 Gold, 0 Silver, 2 Bronze – 4 Total
Norway: 2 Gold 3 Silver, 2 Bronze – 7 Total
Russia: 2 Gold, 0 Silver, 6 Bronze – 8 Total
For Sports Illustrated, these were the medal counts it expected by this point in the competition:
Germany: 4 Gold, 5 Silver, 4 Bronze – 13 Total
United States: 3 Gold, 2 Silver, 3 Bronze – 8 Total
Canada: 2 Gold, 2 Silver, 2 Bronze – 6 Total
France: 2 Gold, 2 Silver, 1 Bronze – 5 Total
Korea: 2 Gold, 3 Silver, 2 Bronze – 7 Total
Norway: 2 Gold 3 Silver, 2 Bronze – 7 Total
Russia: 0 Gold, 0 Silver, 2 Bronze – 2 Total
From these predictions and the actual results, it appears that the United States team is doing much better than expected while Canada is doing as about expected. Germany is meeting the expectations of AP while under performing according to SI. On the other hand, Russia is severely under performing according to AP while meeting SI’s expectations.
So whose expense is the United States profiting from in the medal count? For the most part everyone as the US team is winning medals across a broad range of sports. It picked up two additional medals in the alpine events, a Nordic combined medal and extra medals in short track speedskating.
If there is one team that is probably losing out in the medal race, it is Norway which historically relies heavily on its biathlon and cross country teams for the bulk of its medals in the Winter Games. But now it is finding its pre-eminence in those sports eroding as other nations, particularly France, have vastly improved their teams and are winning medals. This is unlike Canada or the United States which focus on several sports especially the ones that have added to the Games events in the past six Olympics like curling, short track speed skating, and snowboarding.
As for Canada, there is no sense of worry right now on how the team is performing to expectations. Expected medallists like Paradis in Alpine Men’s downhill who did not placed at all in the top ten is offset by an unexpected medallist like Robertson in the Men’s Snowboard Cross event. As it stands now, there are still plenty of opportunities yet for more medals to be won in the days ahead. Looking ahead to the calendar for the balance of the events, Canada could almost expect to win at least one medal per day.
Events:
- Biathlon – Men’s 12.5 km Pursuit; Womens’ 10km Pursuit
- Curling – Beginning of Round Robin play
- Hockey – Beginning of Men’s Round Robin play
- Figure Skating – Men’s Short Program
- Luge – Women’s Singles
- Snowboarding – Women’s Snowcross
- Speedskating – Women’s 500m
Canadian Medal Hopes:
Opportunities for Canada exists primarily in the women’s snowboard cross event as Maelle Ricker and Dominque Maltais carry the hopes for Canada in this event. Both are favored for a medal in the event but if anything that the men’s event from yesterday showed us, favorites have a tendency to crash and burn in the heats. It does not take much to hit a rut and spin around and find yourself seeing the rest of snowboarders way ahead of you in the distance. But Mike Robertson’s silver medal run showed that if you get ahead of the pack quickly and maintain your speed and control through two critical turns, then your chances are good in advancing.
The rest of the day’s calendar does not offer much else. Men’s hockey and men’s and women’s curling begin today with strong medal hopes for the teams further down the line.
Women’s 500m speedskating is on for today but there are no strong Canadian contenders for this event now dominated by Korean, Japanese and Chinese skaters But Shannon Rempel may surprise with a strong effort.
Another outside chance is in the Men’s Biathlon event where Jean Lequelle is in a good position to contend because of the situation that developed in the sprint event where many of the top athletes found themselves way down in the standings because of deteriorating weather conditions that developed through the competition. Earlier skiers had better conditions which gave them good race times which is where Lequelle finds himself. Of course, in biathlon, mistake free shooting is critical so a few missed shots for him will find him way back in the pack. But you never know.