How this video of an event 45 years ago today
made this moment possible
After 54 contests, the Democratic primary season is over and Barack Obama is the party nominee. A combination of super-delegate pledges and elected delegates from the primaries in South Dakota and Montana.
It was quite a contrast hearing speeches from Obama, John McCain and Hilary Clinton tonight. McCain is not a good stump speaker by no means and he just seemed awful giving that stilted speech punctuated by what looked like forced grins. His small audience seemed older than he was and by God did he looked old on television. Clinton remained defiant to the end and barely acknowledged that Obama existed let alone that he has become the presumptive nominee. Totally ungracious in a speech that was totally about herself and little of the party or of the future.
Obama gave another masterful speech. Far more gracious than he should have been to Clinton, he outlined the differences between himself and McCain in stark terms and he has set the tenor in how this election will go forward. It was a strong speech dedicated to his grandmother, full of hope for the future for a better country and a better world.
So how did Obama managed to achieve this outstanding victory? No doubt in large part to his charismatic personality and eloquence but he also worked hard for it and had an exceptional team that out organised, out managed and out campaigned every other campaign out there Democratic or Republican. Clinton managed to have a strong showing in the later part of the campaign only due to her force of personality and high name recognition in the states that were demographically more favorably disposed towards her than Obama.
It was helpful for Obama too to have some luck on his side. A strong showing by Edwards in the early primaries drew off support for Clinton and gave Obama a chance to establish himself. Poor organisation by Clinton in not having a plan after February 5th also worked well. With some many states in play on the same day, Obama could take advantage of the primaries rules and worked on states in which he had no competition. While she crowed about her big wins in New York and California, on the delegate side, Obama was racking impressive totals in the smaller states. At the end of the night, he won more states and more net delegates an advantage that he never really yielded after that date. For Clinton, the inability to do anything after the Feb 5th primaries gave Obama the unbeaten string of 11 primary wins which gave him the momentum to start becoming the front runner and made people seriously think of him as a president.
Other factors like the proportional primaries that diminished the impact of the big state wins that Clinton had and even the botched moves by Florida and Michigan to move up their primaries and ended up costing Clinton much needed delegates and momentum all had a role to play.
In the end, though, it is all about the man. That man in Barack Obama
One big day, two different results at hand for Super Tuesday when 22 states hold primaries and caucuses across the United States.
On the Republican side, it is a foregone conclusion that John McCain will sweep nearly all of the states in play and because of the winner take all setup for this contests, he will get the majority of the delegates. It may be over for that side of the contest come Tuesday.
On the Democratic side, polls indicate a very tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Unlike the Republicans, delegates at play are given on a proportional basis for the most part meaning that even if one of them win a state in the overall vote, the delegates may be nearly evenly split. To be sure this contest will continue past Tuesday.
As an Obama supporter, I can not help be encouraged by the recent wave of polls this weekend that shows him closing the gap in many key states with large number of delegates at stake. The prize is California with what it appears now to be a virtual dead heat. But momentum is on his side as several key endorsements have come his way especially with Maria Shriver’s at an Obama rally. In the end though, he does not need an outright win here or collectively the entire list of states. As many pundits pointed out,if he stays within 100 delegates or so at the end, then he will the advantage. This is because the balance of February states having primary elections strongly favor him leading up to the next big day which will March 4th when Texas and Ohio vote.. After that it will be Pennsylvania and since the calendar will just have that state in play for nearly a whole month, then the style of campaigning that is Obama’s strength will help him immensely.
It is looking good so far for him. Everything is going his way including a musical video based on his speech on the night of the New Hampshire primary that is now the current rage on Youtube and various blogs and news sites.
Yes We Can
(This is something I wrote about Barack Obama back in August 2007. With his victory in the Iowa caucuses and strong position in the upcoming New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, everyone seems to jumping on the Obama bandwagon. I have been on his side for months now but even though the bandwagon is getting a bit crowded now, everyone is welcome. )
I know, traditionally, it is way early yet to start considering who should be the next President of the United States but with the various party candidates engaging in serious campaigning and debating, it is becoming easier for the general population to start making preliminary decisions on what candidate best matches their own political philosophy and expectations for the future.
It is still nearly six months until the first set of primaries and caucuses for each party but moves by various state parties have created a front loading of the elections that it may be all over by the second week of February. So it is critical for all of the candidates to have all of the groundwork established by now in their state organisations, media advertising and most importantly their positions on fundamental issues of today whether it be terrorism, the War in Iraq, health care and the economy.
I have been monitoring what is happening with the Democratic party candidates in what they have been saying. While things may change between now and January with the start of the first primary, the more I listen to him and read what he has been saying, the more I have been impressed with Senator Barack Obama. This is a man who for all intents and purposes has a firm grasp on what is important in this world and understands it better than anyone in the campaign despite and maybe perhaps because of his lack of experience at the senior levels of government.
Consider this speech he gave today on the his approach in dealing with the terrorism threat.
Just because the President misrepresents our enemies does not mean we do not have them. The terrorists are at war with us. The threat is from violent extremists who are a small minority of the world’s 1.3 billion Muslims, but the threat is real. They distort Islam. They kill man, woman and child; Christian and Hindu, Jew and Muslim. They seek to create a repressive caliphate. To defeat this enemy, we must understand who we are fighting against, and what we are fighting for…
The President would have us believe that every bomb in Baghdad is part of al Qaeda’s war against us, not an Iraqi civil war. He elevates al Qaeda in Iraq – which didn’t exist before our invasion – and overlooks the people who hit us on 9/11, who are training new recruits in Pakistan. He lumps together groups with very different goals: al Qaeda and Iran, Shiite militias and Sunni insurgents. He confuses our mission…
By refusing to end the war in Iraq, President Bush is giving the terrorists what they really want, and what the Congress voted to give them in 2002: a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences.When I am President, we will wage the war that has to be won, with a comprehensive strategy with five elements: getting out of Iraq and on to the right battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan; developing the capabilities and partnerships we need to take out the terrorists and the world’s most deadly weapons; engaging the world to dry up support for terror and extremism; restoring our values; and securing a more resilient homeland.
The threat he realises and which this administration fails to grasp is a still viable terrorist organisation hidden in the mountains of Pakistan and not what was happening in Iraq before Saddam’s Hussein’s downfall and what is happening there today. So while al-Qaeda rebuilds, this administration keeps talking about a ’surge’ in Iraq which given the political realities within that country, is nothing more than a holding action which can not endure forever.
I appreciate also that after the little spat that arose between him and Hilary Clinton after the Youtube debate, Obama was forceful in stating his position on how to deal with foreign leaders and I believe that by the end of week, most people concurred that Obama got the better of the exchange.
There are still some issues that perhaps to be addressed more forcibly on the domestic front. John Edwards has established himself as the champion of the poor as his major domestic initiative. Obama can do likewise through a strong focus on affordable health care for all because for everyone health care is becoming their number one concern.
So I think my choice is clear, it is Obama all the way from now until Election Day. Let’s hope others think the same way.