Another day and another day of rain. According to the weather service, this is the 5th wettest spring in the southeast USA since they habe been recording such things since 1895. All sorts of rain too: drizzling rain, thunderstorms, all day, occasional shower and so on. temperatures have been moderate with some hot days. Supposedly, this spell of wet water will pass and we will enter a period of hot dry weather for the balance of the summer season. Sounds like a bumper crop of corn will be in the offing then come the harvest season.
Still, the wet weather did not stop us in having a great picnic this past weekend at my work’s place. Great food, great fun and great company. Check out the photos.
Jeff Teague is joining James Johnson in entering the NBA draft. It is a bit disappointing that the sophomores are leaving so soon. If they were both in the lineup for the upcoming year, Wake Forest would be fine contention for another run at the top like they did in January. So it is time for the freshmen from last year start taking on a more prominent role. Aminu, Woods and Walker were considered to be the 5th best recruiting class last year so it is time for them to step up. Ish Smith and LD Williams will have to make the most of their senior year to keep Wake in contention.
So it goes for another day.
Tonight the third round of the NCAA Tournament will start with the tip off with Purdue against UConn at 7pm. Other games on the night’s schedule include Pittsburgh vs Xavier, Duke vs Villanova, and Memphis vs Missouri. All in all, a very attractive slate of games unlike the NIT tournament games being shown this week on ESPN. Just never got into the NIT despite some of the quality teams that are there.
As for my brackets, I am not doing too badly actually. Of my top 16, on three of my brackets, I have 13 out of 16. Not too bad of an average and for the office pool, enough to put me into a tie for first place.
The really bummer about the whole thing is that Wake went out in defeat in one of the worst games of the year for them. But I should not be too surprised; the team has exhibited Jekyll and Hyde tendencies in the last half of the season. It is not about talent. Plenty of that but rather it is about leadership on the team and the motivation that flows from that. Against top teams like UNC or Duke, each player is highly motivated to do their best but against lower ranked opposition, the team just could not get it going. That is when a true leader steps to the fore and brings the team along with him. If the team remains intact, that means James Johnson who has shown that he can get the team going through his efforts should be the designated captain even informally and adopt the leadership role that the team needs.
So it looks like a good weekend of basketball. Some excellent games and even though there are no Cinderella teams this year, I do not mind as long as I see some truly competitive games.
Let’s hope my bracket stays intact.
So the first day of the Tournament is now over. As typical for a first round day, there were a few surprising close games and an upset or two but for the most part, not an unsurprising day.
I managed to take in a few games on the web and on television though not any complete games. There were some like the CS Northridge-Memphis game that was interesting for awhile as CS took a lead in the game well into the second half before Memphis found its footing and cruised to the end.Similar thing with the Villanova and American game. But several games were like the Duke Binghampton game where one team that supposed to win, did so and in convincing fashion.
Now the win by Western Kentucky over Illinois would be considered to be an upset if it was not for the fact that a 12th seed team has beaten a 5th seed nearly every year now. My pick was for Arizona over Utah which may still happen.
My real out there pick of 13th seed Mississippi State over Washington did not come through as the Huskies decisively beat the SEC champs.
So my brackets are all 11-16 for the day including my crazy bracket. Not a bad day and the picks that did not work out for me do not have lasting impacts because they were not in my final 16 bracket which is the most important bracket that needs to be considered.
Here it is NCAA tournament time. Everyone around the nation has filled out or is rapidly filling out their 2009 NCAA Tournament bracket. This is probably the fourth year now that I participated in filling one out and each year, I get a little better in my selections.
This year, I think I am well prepared. I have never watch as much college hoops as I have done this year. Plenty of Wake Forest and ACC games to be sure, but I was game for any decent game from Big East, Big 10, Pac 10, some Mid-majors like Southern and so on. Standout stars on teams are familiar to me now. I know the style of play of several top teams: who plays pressure offense, who plays zone versus one on one defense.
So after the picks and the rankings and the assignments to the regionals, I look at the teams and …. I picked the conventional choices. Many professional bracketologists as they call themselves are giving the Final Four to Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, and either UConn or Memphis. No one is going out on a limb and picking a team to come up from even the 5th seed to 10th seed to get close to the Final Four. Part of the reason is the sheer amount of talent on those teams and dominance they have shown throughout the year. Another reason is the diminishing presence of the mid-major conferences i.e. any conference not of the big six(ACC, Big East,Big 10, Big 12, PAC-10, SEC). It is when there are a higher number of these mid-major teams that are not their conference champions that upsets are more likely to happen. But it is also a fact that the talent is also increasingly concentrated in the Power 6 conferences making it difficult for a team like Davidson and its reliance on one star, Stephen Curry, to make a breakthrough in the Tournament.
So looking at my choices for the picks, I stayed with the consensus picks for the most of my picks. I do not really see any team breaking out from the lower half of the seeding to make it through. What accounts for upsets is a team like Michigan, seeded 10th beating 7th Clemson. I do not really consider that to be much of an upset because I have seen Clemson played plenty of times this year, and right now they are on the downward slope on momentum. There is one exception, though, I am picking Mississippi State (13th) to beat Washington (4th). PAC-10 teams have been horrid this year and Mississippi State is on a roll lately, winning the SEC championship. I think they have one more good game in them before losing Purdue.
My one real break with the consensus is picking Wake Forest over Louisville. Probably not a safe bet. Louisville plays a solid zone defence that Wake Forest has problems all season long. Still, I have to go with the hometown team at least that far before losing to Kansas in the Elite 8 round.
Eventually, my Final Four ended up being pretty much like last year’s with North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas and instead of UCLA, I have Duke being the fourth. Despite the talk of the success of the Big East conference this year, none of them will get out of the Elite 8 round.
That’s one bracket.
Like many other people now, especially with the ease you can construct a bracket on the various sport web sites, I like to build some insurance in case my choices were not quite right. Now, I am not so extreme that I start building 20-30 brackets to cover various scenario possibilities. I am of the mind that you should should make some choices and stick with them. Actually do some research and make real judgment calls rather than random selection. Still, I like the option to have a variation or two.
So I built two more brackets that are about 80 % in common with my first one. In one of them, I pick Louisville going to the Final Four rather than Kansas, keeping everything else relatively the same. The other, I have Wake Forest in the Final Four.
In all three brackets, I have North Carolina coming out on top.
Like everyone else.
Including the President.
If North Carolina goes down in the second round, millions of brackets are going to be busted including my own. But that is part of the excitement of creating brackets, just to account for what may happen, that even if your own bracket got busted, it is because some team out of no where has made a great run at the expense of a more highly rated team.
If I have to lay odd on my success on each round, I would say if I get 27 out of 32 in the first round, 13 out of 16 in the second round 6 out of 8 in the third round, and 3 out 4 for the fourth round or something like that.
Finally, there is one bracket, that I tend to do now which is something I call my crazy bracket. I pick one team to win it all based on at least serious criteria like a #1 seed but pick different winners at all other rounds. Sometimes, it is my best performing bracket or sometimes it will be like last year when that bracket got absolutely slaughtered before the third round as highly ranked teams nearly always prevailed.
So for the “crazy bracket”, I have picked Pittsburgh to win it but then pick things like having all 12th ranked teams win their 5th ranked opponents in the first round.
So now it begins for two intense weekends of wall to wall basketball. Not planning to do much but watch plenty of basketball but keeping a good eye on my brackets.
Sample Bracket (Wake goes to Final Four): NCAA Tournament Bracket
With the win over Maryland last, 65-63, Wake Forest has now home three games in a row as it prepares to wrap up its season this Sunday with a home game against Clemson. The win insures a first round bye for the Deacons in the ACC tournament next weekend which is good as it gives them an extra day to rest and prepare.
Still, the team has not been exactly overpowering in its three wins with no win margin more than 10 points. Jeff Teague is the focus of the opponent’s defenses now but James Johnson and Ish Smith have both step up to take up the offensive load. In the last three games, opponent defenses have been stuffing the paint under the basket trying to take away Wake’s inside game. It is in these situations that an accurate three pointer shooter would come in handy because a shooter on the likes of Ty Lawson or Terrence Ogelesby would have a field day with such a defense. When Gary Clark rained down two 3 point shots to keep Wake in the game early in the first half, it showed how vulnerable such a defense is to a perimeter shooter.
Wake’s current poll position of 10th seems about right. Last week’s fourteenth was way wrong in my opinion but it was corrected with the two weeks last week. Right now, Wake is looking at a third ranked seed in the a NCAA tournament regional but that could change especially if Wake beats Clemson next week and Duke loses to North Carolina. Getting a second seed is quite doable with some wins on Wake’s part and a break or two going thier way.
Finally, a moment from last night’s game as Teague puts the slam down on Maryland’s Neal:
On Saturday, I was able to attend my first Wake Forest basketball game at LJVM stadium courtesy of some free tickets from a friend. The seats were on the upper deck at the end of the arena but I did not mind as the stadium has great sights lines from anywhere within it and I was able to see the Deacons totally shred Florida State. It is a far different experience to see the game in person than on the television.
With that decisive win and another over Georgia Tech to make up for the earlier loss to the Yellowjackets, Wake Forest seems to find its footing again. For awhile, it appeared that Wake Forest could only get motivated to play its best against top ranked teams and seemingly left the weaker teams of the conference to get their key wins against the Deacons. These two wins will help restore the confidence of the team which seemed to be shaken since they fell out of the top ranked spot in the polls a month ago.
If credit must be due, it is to the play of James Johnson who set the tone early with key shots in the FSU game before leaving prematurely due to foul trouble and in the GT game as he lead all Deac scorers with 24 points. This is probably out of necessity as other teams are concentrating their attention on Jeff Teague which means less attention on other Wake players. This may work on some teams but the strength of Wake Forest is not having a superstar player dominating the game but rather the depth of the team at all positions along with a deep bench to boot. Wake Forest can burn its opponents in many different ways when they are motivated to do so.
Looking ahead to its next game, Duke in Durham on Sunday evening, Wake Forest has a chance to move back up in the polls and more importantly a more favorable position when it comes to the rankings for the NCAA tournament. In the end, that is what it is all about.
Number 1 ranked teams in NCAA basketball this year seem to be having a problem retaining that position for very long. Wake Forest had it last week, Duke has it this week but next week who knows. We do know it will not be Duke as Wake Forest beat the Blue Devils 70-68 on a last second layup by James Johnson.
It was a thriller of a game as both teams exhibited their strong defence and opportunitic play making. Wake Forest did get a 11 point lead at one point in te second half but Duke showed why they are one of the top teams in the nation by storming back and tying it. But Wake’s defence kept Duke shooting to 33% but part of that was due to Duke’s reliance on the perimeter 3 point shot. When Duke can not make those big baskets, they reveal the weakness of their inside game.
Jeff Teague had a off night point-wise with only 10 but Al-Farouq Aminu and Johnson came through for the team and even David Weaver manage to contribute critical points to the game.
So what now for the Deacons?
Well, they play against Georgia Tech which on paper should be an easy game for Wake but you can never tell what may happen especially after UNC’s near defeat by Florida State. Duke plays Virginia, another bottom team but it is doubtful that a victory there will preserve their ranking. So it would appear that UConn will take the top spot in the polls next week and Wake should be #2 or #3 again. But with the defeat of two top ranked teams this year, Wake Forest should solidify its position as one of the top teams to watch come tournament time in March
After beating Clemson 78-68 on Saturday and seeing Pitt lose to Louisville as well, Wake Forest is the only Division I basketball team that remains unbeaten in the nation. With superb play for the past two weeks starting with the defeat of BYU, Wake Forest has gotten everyone’s attention now. The best little team that no one knew about except for local fans and really knowledgeable sport analysts is a secret no more. That is why as of today, the team is now # 1 in the nation according to the AP and USA Today/ESPN polls.
Several players overlooked early on in the season like Jeff Teague and James Johnson are now recognized as being among the best in the nation. The defence is considered to be the best in the nation. So it goes now.
Of course, being number one is much more difficult to retain than aspiring to it. Every team comes after you now as a way to make their mark for the season much in the way that beating Duke or North Carolina does.
Looking ahead though, the top teams that Wake plays now are two games with Duke and a season ender with Clemson at home. The Duke game on the 28th will be the critical one for the balance of the season. Beat Duke at least once, then Wake Forest may cement a #1 seeding for the NCAA tournament which is more important than a #1 ranking in the polls.
But first of all, they will have to get past Virginia Tech on the 21st at home. There is always the danger looking past an upcoming game for a bigger one down the road. As we have seen with Boston College, a team that beat North Carolina but then lost three straight, all teams are motivated to do their best when taking on the best. The Deacons should be able to beat the Hokies but take nothing for granted.
Game Time: January 21st 7:00pm
TV: ESPN2