How soon will the networks and other media call the Presidential election? If certain states are considered to be key to either of the two candidate’s chance of victory for the day, it is conceivable that we may know the result as early as 7:30pm EST.

Why is this so?

Using the Greenpapers.com site and its collection of polling time closures as a guide, we find that many of the states that are now considered to be battleground states will be closing early. This include the following:

Closing at 7:00pm EST:

• Indiana (CST part of the state closes at this time while the EST time closes at 6pm)
• Kentucky (CST part of the state closes at this time while the EST time closes at 6pm)
• Florida
• Georgia
• South Carolina
• Vermont
• Virginia

Closing at 7:30pm

• Ohio
• West Virginia

Now poll closures do not mean that the results will be known right away. Also, the nominal poll closing time in some areas may be extended because of line-ups at polling states. Finally, networks are loathe to call any states prematurely until a certain percentage of votes come in from monitored districts considered to be bellwether districts for the state. When those results confirm whatever exit polls they have on hand, then they will call the state for the candidate.

Having said that, four of those states (Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, Florida) were red Republican states in the past two elections and if we know that at least one of them have flipped to Barack Obama, then it is pretty good chance that the night will be his.

Indeed, the earlier that one of those states is called with something like a significant margin of polls, the better Obama’s chances. This is because certain states are considered to be in the bag for either candidate. States like New York or Wyoming will be called for the candidates as soon as the polls close in those states.

Watch for states like Georgia which are expected to go for McCain. If the margin becomes very close and a winner is not declared early on, that will mean that Obama’s support will be considered to be very broad.

In any case, by the time the Pacific states close their polls at 11:00pm, we should have a good time how the voting goes for the election.