Just a little more than two weeks before the election on November 4th for the presidential election and it will an anxious several days until then. While Barack Obama has a good lead now on John McCain in the national polls and more importantly a sizable lead in the electoral college votes, at no point should this be taken for granted. But the signs are good and I feel more confident now than I was in 2004 on the outcome.

But the lead can easily vanish with an event that is beyond Obama’s ability to control. It is unlikely given the control Obama has had over his conduct of the campaign to make a gaffe of any sorts can change the course of the election. Joe Biden may say something that gets some media attention more unlikely to resonate beyond a single 24 hour news cycle.

Still, it is questionable on what sort of event would change the election so drastically. We already had the October surprise in the form of the financial crisis which affected more people than other event can. even a terrorist attack will have to be outsize in the degree of the 9-11 attacks to make such an impression. A natural disaster like a California earthquake may take the attention of the news media for several days which affects the McCain campaign more than the Obama’s since it desperately needs visibility in order to catch since it is so short in cash relative to the Obama campaign. On Monday, we will find out how much the Obama campaign raised in the month of September. It has to be a large number given the amount of advertising it has bought to date since the kickoff of the campaigns on the Labour Day weekend.

Here in North Carolina, we are seeing at least one stop per campaign every week now. Sunday, Barack Obama is coming to Fayetteville NC for a rally. Sarah Palin was here on Thursday past and John McCain is in the state today.

Advertising seems to be a bit more skewed towards Obama but I think McCain’s is part of national buys for a show by region like NBC news in the Mid-Atlantic states. But the real serious air war is happening between Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole for the Senate seat. Plenty of outside advertisers like the Republican Governors Association and the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. The advertising for this race exceeds the presidential race in numbers if not dollars spent. As I do not listen to local radio (NPR all the way) I do not know the volume of radio ads in the area.

On drives around Winston-Salem, yard signage seems to be a bit lighter than I remember from previous years. The city proper seems to be predominantly Obama while the rural outskirts is more McCain but not as much as one suspects. Similarly, bumper stickers seem to be 50-50 but not as much as from prior years. Perhaps it is better to channel your support into volunteering and get out the vote than just sticking a sign into the ground.

On other down ballot races, outside of the Senate race, there is not much talk about them. Even the Bev Perdue and Pat McCory race for Governor does not have the drive of the national races. Congressional races are quiet. There is some advertising for District 5 between Virginia Foxx (R), who once voted against Katrina relief, and Roy Carter (D) but the outcome seems a foregone conclusion and is the District 12 for Mel Watt (D).

Early voting has been heavy since it started on October 16th.

Voters waited up to an hour yesterday to cast their ballots as the first day of early voting began at the Forsyth County Government Center in downtown Winston-Salem.

At times, the line stretched around the second-floor balcony and continued at the foot of the escalator down a hallway to the parking garage, said Rob Coffman, the county’s director of elections.

“If we can get 30 percent early voters or absentees, I think it will make Election Day go better for everybody,” Coffman said. Twenty-one percent of the people who voted in the May primary voted early.

A line of about 60 people greeted election officials yesterday when early voting began at 8 a.m. The busiest time was in the early afternoon, when some people waited about an hour. At other times, the wait was 30 minutes.

Donald Evans was the first in line yesterday, arriving about 6. He said he wanted to make sure he was in line early because he had to go to work later in the morning as a bus driver. He recommended that others vote early as well.

“To vote early, once you get it over, you feel happy about it,” Evans said.

By the end of the day, 1,733 people had voted.

Voters use touch-screen computers to cast their ballots during the early-voting process.

Coffman said that voters should be aware that if they cast only a straight-party vote they still haven’t voted for president or for any of the nonpartisan contests on the ballot, including a local bond referendum.

“The president is actually the first office you see on the ballot,” Coffman said. “The next is the straight-party voting.”

Linda Poller, one of the earliest voters, said she was stunned when she realized after voting that she hadn’t voted in the presidential race. She had meant to vote for Barack Obama and didn’t realize — until it was too late — that she had skipped that part of the ballot.

“I voted in 2004, and I remember now in the back of my mind someone saying you have to vote for president separately,” she said. “No one said that this morning.”

Both the computer screens and the paper ballots that will be used on Election Day specify in two places that a straight-party vote doesn’t include the presidential race. After Poller’s voting mishap, Coffman said he told elections workers to help get the word out about how straight-party voting works.

Source: Winston-Salem Journal

Not sure how prevalent the problem mentioned in the article of the straight line party voting affects the selection of the presidential choice but hopefully, it will be minimal and not play a role in the final outcome.

The days are pretty warm here in Winston-Salem and autumn is here. No excuses for getting out early to vote.